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  • Jan 4, 2019
  • Comments Off on Phoenix Replaces Seattle In Top Three Cities In Annual Gains According To S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index
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January 4th, 2019
Phoenix Replaces Seattle In Top Three Cities In Annual Gains According To S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index

NEW YORK – S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for October 2018 shows that the rate of home price increases across the U.S. slowed for the third month in a row. More than 27 years of history for these data series is available, and can be accessed in full by going to www.homeprice.spdji.com. Additional content on the housing market can also be found on S&P Dow Jones Indices’ housing blog: www.housingviews.com.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.5% annual gain in October, remaining the same from the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 4.7%, down from 4.9% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 5.0% year-over-year gain, down from 5.2% in the previous month.

Las Vegas, San Francisco and Phoenix reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In October, Las Vegas led the way with a 12.8% year-over-year price increase, followed by San Francisco with a 7.9% increase and Phoenix with a 7.7% increase. Six of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending October 2018 versus the year ending September 2018.

MONTH-OVER-MONTH

Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 0.1% in October. The 10-City and 20-City Composites did not report any gains for the month. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.5% month-over-month increase in October. The 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite posted 0.5% and 0.4% month-over-month increases, respectively. In October, nine of 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustment, while 18 of 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.

ANALYSIS

“Home prices in most parts of the U.S. rose in October from September and from a year earlier,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The combination of higher mortgage rates and higher home prices rising faster than incomes and wages means fewer people can afford to buy a house. Fixed rate 30-year mortgages are currently 4.75%, up from 4% one year earlier. Home prices are up 54%, or 40% excluding inflation, since they bottomed in 2012. Reduced affordability is slowing sales of both new and existing single family homes. Sales peaked in November 2017 and have drifted down since then.

“The largest gains were seen in Las Vegas where home prices rose 12.8% in the last 12 months, compared to an average of 5.3% across the other 19 cities. This is a marked change from the housing collapse in 2006-12 when Las Vegas was the hardest hit city with prices down 62%. After the last recession, Las Vegas diversified its economy by adding a medical school, becoming a regional center for health care, and attracting high technology employers. Employment is increasing 3% annually, twice as fast as the national rate.”

SUPPORTING DATA

Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.

2006 Peak

2012 Trough

Current

Index

Level

Date

Level

Date

From Peak
(%)

Level

From Trough
(%)

From Peak
(%)

National

184.61

Jul-06

134.00

Feb-12

-27.4%

206.03

53.8%

11.6%

20-City

206.52

Jul-06

134.07

Mar-12

-35.1%

213.89

59.5%

3.6%

10-City

226.29

Jun-06

146.45

Mar-12

-35.3%

227.65

55.4%

0.6%

Table 2 below summarizes the results for October 2018. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.

October 2018

October/September

September/August

1-Year

Metropolitan Area

Level

Change (%)

Change (%)

Change (%)

Atlanta

148.46

0.2%

0.2%

6.0%

Boston

216.56

0.1%

0.0%

5.4%

Charlotte

159.07

0.3%

0.2%

5.0%

Chicago

144.56

-0.3%

-0.1%

3.3%

Cleveland

123.85

-0.5%

0.3%

4.8%

Dallas

187.45

0.0%

0.0%

3.9%

Denver

216.16

-0.3%

-0.1%

6.9%

Detroit

124.84

0.0%

0.1%

6.0%

Las Vegas

190.00

0.3%

0.6%

12.8%

Los Angeles

283.03

0.1%

-0.2%

5.5%

Miami

238.78

0.1%

0.2%

4.8%

Minneapolis

173.32

-0.1%

-0.1%

5.9%

New York

201.41

0.4%

0.4%

3.1%

Phoenix

186.87

0.7%

0.7%

7.7%

Portland

233.73

-0.6%

-0.1%

4.9%

San Diego

255.76

-0.1%

-0.4%

3.8%

San Francisco

267.24

-0.7%

0.0%

7.9%

Seattle

247.66

-1.1%

-1.3%

7.3%

Tampa

213.26

0.3%

0.6%

6.4%

Washington

227.97

0.0%

-0.2%

2.9%

Composite-10

227.65

0.0%

0.1%

4.7%

Composite-20

213.89

0.0%

0.0%

5.0%

U.S. National

206.03

0.1%

0.1%

5.5%

Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic

Data through October 2018

Table 3 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.

October/September Change (%)

September/August Change (%)

Metropolitan Area

NSA

SA

NSA

SA

Atlanta

0.2%

0.7%

0.2%

0.8%

Boston

0.1%

0.7%

0.0%

0.3%

Charlotte

0.3%

0.5%

0.2%

0.5%

Chicago

-0.3%

0.6%

-0.1%

0.5%

Cleveland

-0.5%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

Dallas

0.0%

0.2%

0.0%

0.5%

Denver

-0.3%

0.2%

-0.1%

0.3%

Detroit

0.0%

0.5%

0.1%

0.6%

Las Vegas

0.3%

0.8%

0.6%

0.9%

Los Angeles

0.1%

0.5%

-0.2%

0.2%

Miami

0.1%

0.3%

0.2%

0.1%

Minneapolis

-0.1%

0.4%

-0.1%

0.2%

New York

0.4%

0.7%

0.4%

0.7%

Phoenix

0.7%

0.7%

0.7%

0.9%

Portland

-0.6%

0.2%

-0.1%

0.3%

San Diego

-0.1%

0.3%

-0.4%

-0.2%

San Francisco

-0.7%

-0.6%

0.0%

0.6%

Seattle

-1.1%

-0.3%

-1.3%

-0.3%

Tampa

0.3%

0.3%

0.6%

0.7%

Washington

0.0%

0.4%

-0.2%

0.3%

Composite-10

0.0%

0.5%

0.1%

0.4%

Composite-20

0.0%

0.4%

0.0%

0.7%

U.S. National

0.1%

0.5%

0.1%

0.4%

Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic

Data through October 2018

For more information about S&P Dow Jones Indices, please visit www.spdji.com.

ABOUT S&P DOW JONES INDICES

S&P Dow Jones Indices is the largest global resource for essential index-based concepts, data and research, and home to iconic financial market indicators, such as the S&P 500® and the Dow Jones Industrial Average®. More assets are invested in products based on our indices than products based on indices from any other provider in the world. Since Charles Dow invented the first index in 1884, S&P DJI has become home to over 1,000,000 indices across the spectrum of asset classes that have helped define the way investors measure and trade the markets.

S&P Dow Jones Indices is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI), which provides essential intelligence for individuals, companies, and governments to make decisions with confidence. For more information, visit www.spdji.com.